레버리지 ETF 백테스트

ETF·개별주 223종 · 전략 17종 백테스트

ETF and stock backtest — return and maximum drawdown for 223 tickers across 17 strategies

Replay 223 tickers and 17 built-in strategies day by day over historical closes. Five families: split buying (A), dual mode (D) that switches between attack and defence on the weekly RSI, overnight breakout (B) that buys a move above the open and sells at the next open, two GDXU-only strategies (G), and Laoer's infinite buying V4.0 (I). You see not just the return but how deep the account fell, and how many years ended negative when each year is restarted from scratch.


Split-buying parameters Standard · Aggressive · Defensive ▼
These are the parameters used by Standard (Diamond), Aggressive and Defensive. Those three presets differ only in tranche weights, take-profit target and timecut. Change a value and run the backtest to test your own variation.
Preset Weights Buy Target Timecut
Standard 10·15·20·25·20·10−0.01%1.5%10d
Defensive 5·10·15·20·25·25−0.01%0.01%10d
Aggressive 16.7 × 6−0.1%2.0%12d
MA(이동평균) 이상일 때 매수
RSI (14일)
볼린저밴드 하단 주가가 밴드 하단(과매도) 터치 시 매수
MACD 양수 MACD가 시그널선 위(상승추세)일 때 매수
Mode-switching parameters Mode switching ×5 ▼
Used by the five Mode-switch presets. This engine reads the weekly RSI to flip between attack and defence, and decides its own take-profit and holding period, so the split-buying values above do not apply. D1–D5 differ only in the two values below; D6 is D5 plus a bear-market guard.
※ 본 백테스트는 소수점 투자가 아닌 주식 정수(1주 단위) 매수 기준으로 계산됩니다.
Maximum drawdown is measured on total account value including cash, not on any single tranche's average cost. Split buying leaves cash idle most of the time, so its drawdown looks smaller than buy and hold.
수익률
-
최대 낙폭(MDD)
-
연평균(CAGR)
-
거래 횟수
-
승률
-
익절 / 손절(타임컷)
-
평균 보유일
-
연도 선택 전략 단순 보유
수익률 MDD 수익률 MDD

How to use this backtest

Pick a ticker, set the period and the seed capital, then press Run Backtest. The tool replays the split-buying rules day by day over the closing prices and reports what the account would have looked like.

  1. Ticker. Seventeen US ETFs and ETNs, mostly leveraged. The listing date is shown under each one; nothing before that date can be tested.
  2. Period. Type eight digits and the hyphens appear on their own. Include at least one bear market — 2018, 2020 and 2022 are the useful ones.
  3. Seed and fee. Shares are bought in whole units, so a small seed against an expensive share can end up buying nothing at all.
  4. Tranches and weights. Divide the seed into N parts. The weights decide how much each tranche gets.
  5. Entry trigger. Buy the next tranche when the close falls at least this much below the previous close. One tranche per day, no more.
  6. Profit target. Each tranche is sold on its own when it reaches this gain, net of fees.
  7. Time cut. Any tranche still open after this many sessions is closed at the market, profit or loss.

Results show total return, maximum drawdown, annualised return (CAGR), win rate and average holding days, with the equity curve drawn against buy and hold.

Frequently asked questions

Why is the drawdown so much smaller than buy and hold?

Maximum drawdown here is measured on the whole account value including cash. Split buying leaves most of the seed uninvested most of the time, and idle cash does not fall. That is the main reason the figure looks better. Read it as low exposure rather than as protection — check the exposure number alongside it.

Is the drawdown per tranche or on the average cost?

Neither. Every day the tool adds cash plus the market value of open tranches, builds an equity curve from that, and measures how far the curve fell from its running peak.

Why does the result sometimes show no trades at all?

Whole-share buying. If one tranche is allocated $1,000 and the share costs $1,200, it buys nothing. Raise the seed or lower the number of tranches.

Does a 3x ETF really deliver three times the index?

Only for a single day. Over longer periods volatility drag pulls the result below 3x in choppy markets and above 3x in a sustained trend. The arithmetic is worked through in the guide on volatility drag.

Can I test the 2008 crisis?

Yes. SOXL and TQQQ listed in 2010 and SPYU in 2023, so the years before listing are index-based: the daily return of an older 1x index or ETF tracking the same market (for SOXL the PHLX Semiconductor Index), multiplied by the leverage, minus the fund fee, the borrowing cost and a tracking cost measured on the years where real and index-based prices overlap. The screen tells you when a result uses this range and marks those years in the yearly tables. SCHD has no free 1x source, so it starts at its 2011 listing. How the series is built and how closely it matches the real ETFs is in the guide Backtesting leveraged ETFs before they existed.

What does the time cut actually do?

It closes tranches that have been sitting at a loss. Without it, a falling market leaves every tranche open and the account has no cash left to buy the decline. It is the rule that keeps the cycle turning.

Are dividends and taxes included?

Prices are split and dividend adjusted, so dividends are reflected in the price series. Taxes are not. Figures on this page are pre-tax, and a high-turnover strategy loses more to tax than a buy-and-hold one.

How much should I trust a good result?

Move each parameter 20% either way and run it again. A strategy worth using sits on a broad plateau; if only one exact setting works, it was fitted to the past. There is a full checklist in the guides.