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SCHD backtest — split-buying returns and maximum drawdown

US large caps with consistent dividends. Lower volatility.

Last close
$35.27
From 52-week high
-0.4%
Leverage
1x
Listed
2011-10

Prices as of 2026-10-23. Source: Data via FinanceDataReader · Policy rate via FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).

What SCHD is

SCHD is Charles Schwab's US dividend ETF, launched in October 2011. It holds about a hundred companies with at least ten years of steady dividends and solid balance sheets. Its fee is very low and it has long been popular with dividend-growth investors.

Technology weighs little while consumer staples, health care, energy and financials weigh more, so it tends to trail the S&P 500 in tech-led markets and to fall less in years when tech is weak. Prices on this page are dividend-adjusted, so results approximate reinvested dividends. Taxes are not included.

Its daily moves are among the smallest on this site, so split-buying settings built for leveraged funds barely trigger any buys. Lower the trigger and adjust the take-profit target and time cut together. A rule of thumb for matching the time cut to a ticker is at the end of why use a time cut.

The deepest fall since listing

Using real closing prices only (adjusted for splits and dividends) from 2011-10-20, SCHD's worst peak-to-trough fall was -33.4%, from the 2020-01-23 high to the 2020-03-23 low over 41 trading days. It took another 161 trading days (about 0.6 years) to get back above that high, on 2020-11-09. The last close is 0.4% below the all-time high.

A fall of 33.4% needs a 50% gain to get back to even. Any strategy on SCHD has to be judged on whether you could have held it through a stretch like this. Why drawdown comes before return.

How much SCHD moves in a day

The standard deviation of daily returns is 0.97% over the whole history and 0.72% over the last year. By the rough rule days ≈ (target ÷ daily volatility)², a 1.5% take-profit target needs about 4.4 trading days at the recent pace. Where the rule comes from.

Ten years of split buying on SCHD

Three preset strategies run over 2016-01-04 to 2026-10-23 with a $10,000 seed and 0.1% fees, alongside simply holding the same instrument.

Strategy Return Max drawdown CAGR Trades Win rate
A2 Standard, base rules (no defence signal) +30.63% -21.41% +2.51% 1197 43.1%
A1 Defensive, base rules +0.09% -19.52% +0.01% 1215 81.8%
A3 Aggressive, base rules (no defence signal) +52.05% -23.47% +3.96% 1047 40.4%
Buy and hold +176.97% -33.36% +9.91% --

Read the drawdown column before the return column. Split buying leaves much of the seed in cash, which is the main reason its drawdown is smaller — treat it as lower exposure rather than protection.

Test SCHD with your own settings →

Year by year

The standard (diamond) preset, one calendar year at a time. A strategy worth using should have good years and bad years mixed — if one year made everything, that was the year, not the rules.

Year Strategy Strategy MDD Buy and hold B&H MDD
2026 +5.22% -6.52% +26.92% -7.61%
2025 +2.15% -10.99% +0.42% -14.77%
2024 +1.76% -8.12% +6.64% -8.79%
2023 -5.22% -13.90% +0.71% -14.25%
2022 -4.05% -12.61% -6.69% -18.88%
2021 +7.91% -4.59% +27.52% -4.98%
2020 +11.85% -13.85% +10.23% -33.36%
2019 +2.01% -6.78% +23.06% -8.68%
2018 -11.22% -17.18% -8.66% -18.94%
2017 +4.30% -2.05% +16.59% -2.69%

Across these 10 years the strategy beat buy and hold in 3 and trailed it in 7. It lost money in 3 years; buy and hold lost in 2. In SCHD's worst year here, 2018, holding returned -8.7% while the strategy returned -11.2%. In its best year, 2021, holding returned +27.5% and the strategy +7.9%. Giving up much of the best years is the price of the smaller drawdowns.

Questions about SCHD

How far back can SCHD be tested?

SCHD listed in 2011-10. Nothing before that date exists, so any claim about how it would have behaved in an earlier crisis is guesswork. For older periods, test a 1x index ETF instead.

Why does the strategy show no trades sometimes?

Whole shares only. If a tranche is allocated less than one share's price, it buys nothing. Raise the seed or lower the number of tranches.

Can I see what to buy today?

The Today's Orders page computes the next session's buy limit and each tranche's sell target from your start date. It is a calculation, not advice, and no orders are placed.

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