A single-stock ETF tracking 2x the daily return of Coinbase (COIN).
Prices as of 2026-10-23. Source: Data via FinanceDataReader · Policy rate via FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
CONL is GraniteShares' 2x Coinbase ETF, launched in August 2022. It follows twice the daily move of a single company, the largest US crypto exchange, rather than an index. Coinbase earns most of its revenue from trading fees, so its share price is sensitive to bitcoin prices and trading volume.
The multiple is only 2x, but the underlying stock swings as much in a day as a 3x index fund, which makes CONL the roughest ticker on this site. It fell hard in the 2022 crypto bear market right after listing, then multiplied during the 2023 rebound and crashed again more than once. With swings this large, volatility drag is severe: Coinbase can return to where it started while CONL stays far below.
The issuer itself describes it as a product for holding a single day. With a short history and exposure to one company, a good backtest here says little about the strategy's skill. Before trusting a result, go through five reasons backtests look better than reality.
Using real closing prices only (adjusted for splits and dividends) from 2022-08-10, CONL's worst peak-to-trough fall was -95.4%, from the 2024-03-25 high to the 2026-08-06 low over 593 trading days. It has not regained that high since: 55 trading days have passed since the low. The last close is 94.9% below the all-time high.
A fall of 95.4% needs a 2,069% gain to get back to even. Any strategy on CONL has to be judged on whether you could have held it through a stretch like this. Why drawdown comes before return.
The standard deviation of daily returns is 9.39% over the whole history
and 9.06% over the last year. By the rough rule
days ≈ (target ÷ daily volatility)², a 1.5% take-profit target needs about
less than one trading day at the recent pace, so most tranches close at the target well before the time cut.
Where the rule comes from.
Three preset strategies run over 2022-08-10 to 2026-10-23 with a $10,000 seed and 0.1% fees, alongside simply holding the same instrument.
| Strategy | Return | Max drawdown | CAGR | Trades | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A2 Standard, base rules (no defence signal) | -33.29% | -77.08% | -9.22% | 547 | 74.2% |
| A1 Defensive, base rules | -53.85% | -76.90% | -16.87% | 549 | 78.1% |
| A3 Aggressive, base rules (no defence signal) | +11.73% | -77.24% | +2.69% | 537 | 76.2% |
| Buy and hold | -81.29% | -95.32% | -32.99% | - | - |
Read the drawdown column before the return column. Split buying leaves much of the seed in cash, which is the main reason its drawdown is smaller — treat it as lower exposure rather than protection.
Test CONL with your own settings →The standard (diamond) preset, one calendar year at a time. A strategy worth using should have good years and bad years mixed — if one year made everything, that was the year, not the rules.
| Year | Strategy | Strategy MDD | Buy and hold | B&H MDD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -9.88% | -62.63% | -72.89% | -78.57% |
| 2025 | -31.21% | -49.59% | -61.31% | -78.63% |
| 2024 | +17.92% | -53.84% | +21.55% | -79.39% |
| 2023 | +7.87% | -32.09% | +698.83% | -59.01% |
| 2022 | -33.68% | -49.82% | -80.20% | -82.46% |
| 2021 | - | - | - | - |
| 2020 | - | - | - | - |
| 2019 | - | - | - | - |
| 2018 | - | - | - | - |
| 2017 | - | - | - | - |
Across these 5 years the strategy beat buy and hold in 3 and trailed it in 2. It lost money in 3 years; buy and hold lost in 3. In CONL's worst year here, 2022, holding returned -80.2% while the strategy returned -33.7%. In its best year, 2023, holding returned +698.8% and the strategy +7.9%. Giving up much of the best years is the price of the smaller drawdowns.
CONL listed on 2022-08-10, and every number on this page uses real prices only. In the backtest tool you can go back to 2021, but the years before listing are index-based: CONL listed on 2022-08-10. Prices from 2021-04-14 to the day before listing are converted from the 1x index, not real trades: the daily return of Coinbase stock (COIN, 1x) multiplied by 2, minus the fund fee (1.15%/yr), borrowing cost (1x the 13-week T-bill rate). Treat that range as an estimate. Even close-only strategies such as A and D can shift by 1–2 points a year over this range depending on the conversion assumptions (dividends, costs, index differences). See how the index-based history is built and checked.
Only for a single day. Over longer stretches volatility drag pulls the result below 2x in choppy markets and above it in a sustained trend. The arithmetic is here.
Whole shares only. If a tranche is allocated less than one share's price, it buys nothing. Raise the seed or lower the number of tranches.
The Today's Orders page computes the next session's buy limit and each tranche's sell target from your start date. It is a calculation, not advice, and no orders are placed.